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2026 Primary Dates
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Fielded September 22–23, 2025 | 1,024 Likely Voters | MoE ±3.05%
Fielded September 22–23, 2025 | 1,024 Likely Voters | MoE ±3.05%
Competitive Landscape
A little over a month out from November’s general election, Democrats hold modest advantages at the top of the ticket and on the generic legislative ballot, but a notable portion of Independent voters are undecided.
Governor’s Race
The race for Governor has become remarkably stable, yet tighter than public polling might suggest, with Abigail Spanberger leading Winsome Earle-Sears by 6 points, 49-43%. While Spanberger is winning Independents, a majority of women, and voters under the age of 45, Earle-Sears leads with White voters, high school-educated voters, and seniors 65+, who represent a notable 38% of November’s electorate; 7% of the electorate is undecided. Additionally, among voters who are most likely to turnout (3 of 4 or greater), the ballot tightens to a mere 4-point lead for Spanberger.
Governor Ballot
Among All Voters
Legislative Ballot
Down ballot, Democrats hold a slim advantage over Republicans, 49-45%, with 6% undecided. Independents lean Democrat by a 33-point margin, with a crucial 17% up for grabs. Republicans, in contrast, hold advantages with voters over 45 and in Richmond, Roanoke, and smaller media markets.
Generic Ballot For House of Delegates
Among All Voters
Outlook
The Virginia election remains remarkably competitive heading into the final stretch. While Democrats currently hold narrow leads in both the governor’s race and on the legislative ballot, neither is out of reach for Republicans. With portions of key groups still undecided, particularly Independents, middle-aged voters, and higher-propensity voters, there is room for movement and a near assurance that the election is poised to come down to the wire.