Virginia Statewide
General Election 2025
Competitive Landscape Analysis
September 22-23, 2025
Governor's Race
Full Question: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
Topline
Key Findings
The race for Governor has become remarkably stable, yet tighter than public polling might suggest, with Abigail Spanberger leading Winsome Earle-Sears by 6 points. While Spanberger is winning Independents, a majority of women, and voters under the age of 45, Earle-Sears leads with White voters, high school-educated voters, and seniors 65+, who represent a notable 38% of November's electorate. Among voters who are most likely to turnout (3 of 4 or greater), the ballot tightens to a mere 4-point lead for Spanberger.
Generic Ballot for House of Delegates
Full Question: If the election for the Virginia House of Delegates were held today, who would you vote for?
Topline
Key Findings
Down ballot, Democrats hold a slim advantage over Republicans, 49-45%, with 6% undecided. Independents lean Democrat by a 33-point margin, with a crucial 17% up for grabs. Republicans, in contrast, hold advantages with voters over 45 and in Richmond, Roanoke, and smaller media markets.
Methodology & Demographics
Age
| 18-34 | 18% |
| 35-44 | 16% |
| 45-54 | 19% |
| 55-64 | 22% |
| 65+ | 25% |
Gender
| Female | 52% |
| Male | 48% |
Education
| HS or Less | 28% |
| Some College | 29% |
| College Grad | 26% |
| Post-Grad | 17% |
Race
| White | 68% |
| Black | 18% |
| Hispanic | 8% |
| Other | 6% |
Party ID
| Democrat | 38% |
| Republican | 36% |
| Independent | 26% |