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Fielded September 22–23, 2025 | 1,024 Likely Voters | MoE ±3.05%
Fielded September 22–23, 2025 | 1,024 Likely Voters | MoE ±3.05%
Political Climate & Voter Engagement
Recent statewide polling in Virginia speaks to an electorate that is increasingly engaged as early voting throughout the state ramps up. According to the data, heightened political tensions and concerns about political violence in recent weeks have more voters paying attention to this high-stakes off-year election, particularly lower-propensity center-right voters.
Fascist Claims in the Electorate
Extreme rhetoric has become so pervasive that 9 of 10 voters say they have heard politicians or media personalities assert that President Trump is a fascist authoritarian. Even more alarming is that a full 50% of Virginia voters actually believe this claim, and 45% consider having a fascist in charge of government as a justification for violence.
Aware of Fascist Claims
Among All Voters
Agree With Fascist Claims
Among All Voters
Violence Justified To Stop Fascist Dictator
Among All Voters
Attitudes Toward Political Violence
By a 13-point margin, Virginia voters fault the Left’s rhetoric and language (42%) more than the Right’s (29%) when thinking about the rise in political violence over the past several years; 24% say it cannot be blamed on either side. Independents are almost equally divided into thirds. Meanwhile, Republicans see the Left as the main culprit, while Democrats are less unified – only about half blame the Right, and a notable third say neither side should be singled out.
Importantly, 55% of men 45 and older say the Left is most to blame, as do 43% of lower-propensity, presidential-only type voters (2 of 4s).
Blame For Political Violence
Among All Voters
Blame For Political Violence
Among Republicans
Blame For Political Violence
Among Democrats
Blame For Political Violence
Among Independents
Support National Guard Actions
Nearly half (48%) of voters throughout the state stand by the President’s decision to use the National Guard to crack down on violent crime in D.C., while an almost equal amount oppose it. At 95% support, Virginia Republicans wholeheartedly back Trump’s decision, as do 52% of men and 59% of lower-propensity voters.
Similarly, a 50% majority of Virginia’s electorate supports Trump using the National Guard to assist in removing violent criminal illegal immigrants. This includes 63% of men 45 and older.
National Guard In DC
Among All Voters
National Guard Removing Violent Illegals
Among All Voters
Bottom Line
Bottom line, this data underscores how the narratives of violence and blame forming have the potential to shape turnout and overall outcomes this November. The recent increase in political violence, paired with the extreme political rhetoric of the Left, has seemingly brought a segment of voters into the fold who might otherwise be tuning this election out, namely older-to-middle-aged, conservative-leaning men.